Hey TCG,
You think China will separate into 2 or multiple nations anytime in the future? I just think that over billion people is too much of a task for one government?
Thanks
Marcus
Dear Marcus
For the most part China is already a divided nation. I don't mean the SAR Macau or SAR Hong Kong. Quite simply they have virtual SAR like states within their own borders.
Firstly there are SEZs, Special economic zones.
- Shenzhen
- Zhuhai
- Shantou
- Xiamen
Where commerce laws, taxes etc labour laws are all different in these zones. But as I said much earlier the autonomous zones are still really under control of the CCP anyway. Not to mention Taiwan and the Client state North Korea.
It is divided in other ways though, via ethnicity's, language, food and wealth. I think as I have touched on many times eventually there will be separatists. The CCP will probably try to hold on to it as long as possible or bribe them to stay. But who knows about the future? It is like one of those debates about a new US civil war coming. It's possible. Though I give the CCP of China another 10 years 15 tops as some real big issues are stacking up and anger is being stoked such as Chinese ant colonies.
It is divided in other ways though, via ethnicity's, language, food and wealth. I think as I have touched on many times eventually there will be separatists. The CCP will probably try to hold on to it as long as possible or bribe them to stay. But who knows about the future? It is like one of those debates about a new US civil war coming. It's possible. Though I give the CCP of China another 10 years 15 tops as some real big issues are stacking up and anger is being stoked such as Chinese ant colonies.
"Though I give the CCP of China another 10 years 15 tops as some real big issues are stacking up and anger is being stoked such as Chinese ant colonies."
ReplyDeleteBro, it is not going to happen. My dad was part of the Tiananmen protests but he loves the government now. Chinese people see the progress the country has gone through in the past 30 years and the government was responsible for it. In my dad's opinion, if the government apologizes for the past (cultural revolution, 6/4 protests...), it would be the greatest government in the world. Overall, the image of the communist government is a lot better than it was in the 60's and 70's. Nothing is going to happen for a long while, stop worrying.
Who says I'm worried?
ReplyDeleteI realise the image issue, image in the long run means very little. I remember a chat in Beijing with a local girl. And her dad he said he saw the progress going on and felt the government was doing things for them. However on the flip side he had not been stepped on in the name of progress.
Curiously my dad is a pro communist too, but then again he tends to ignore many of the bad things and swallows things hook line and sinker from the CCP.
Curiously he won't renounce his UK citizenship though (nor will I but I collect citizenships).
The issue at hand is simply the CCP does not have as much control as it thinks it does. There are a ton of internal factors which make China look dodgy.
But the external factors are the big ones. Quite simply China's economy is in big trouble. 'China's growth' since late 2008 has been nothing more than government stimulus. They are simply spending the 1trn US$ they have backed up. UK 'growth' in 2009/10 was exactly the same thing (though we printed money).
This is evidenced by the Baltic dry index which shows shipping of goods simply dropped off a cliff.
Also in an attempt to stay competitive and stimulate exports China keeps on upping the amount banks have to keep in reserve.
REMEMBER the USA and Europe China's markets are pretty much completely broke and have maxxed out their credit cards. Internal consumption of Chinese goods can in no way take up the slack of goods manufactured. EVEN if China goes Japan and starts to make high quality goods who has the money to buy them?
The USA can have money.... if they print it which devalues the US$ held in China's vaults, therefore you ain't getting any richer!
It is THESE issues which flow into social issues which cause unrest.
For example the UK has uber structural unemployment, the UK government bribes people to stay out of trouble and uses advanced propaganda to keep the people docile. What happens when the money runs out?
REMEMBER the USA and Europe China's markets are pretty much completely broke and have maxxed out their credit cards. Internal consumption of Chinese goods can in no way take up the slack of goods manufactured. EVEN if China goes Japan and starts to make high quality goods who has the money to buy them?
ReplyDeleteForgot to add WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT INFLATION.
Significant inflation, rising wages erodes Chinese competitive advantage. Which causes more problems.
If wages rise too much in China, the kleptists (often mistaken for capitalists) will simply use robots. BMW for instance built a factory in Bavaria which employed <100 people as it was automated.